Facts and Certainty Factors (CF) – Overall Certainty

Overall Certainty

Any results that Rainbird produces after completing a query will have aCertainty Factor. The Certainty Factor represents how sure Rainbird is of the result it has returned. The Certainty Factor can vary depending on the data inputted by the user, the rules of a knowledge map, and whether Rainbird is working with incomplete data.

Data input into Rainbird is also associated with a certainty factor.  End-users can answer questions and provide a certainty level ,which reflects how sure they are of their answer, during a query.  The knowledge map’s facts will also have a certainty factor associated with them, and whether Rainbird is more or less certain about a fact will impact the certainty factor of the results Rainbird produces.  

This article describes how the “Certainty Factor” of an outcome is calculated, and how it can be used and interpreted by the user. More information about how the certainty factor can be affected by end-users and facts can be found in the allowCF article and the fact / concept instance articles.

 

The Certainty Factor can  also be used to calculate the probability of an outcome. Let’s assume that Isaac knows roughly how many apples and pears he has, and what proportions of the fruit are what colour. Isaac now wants to estimate the probability of picking a certain fruit:

Click on the ‘Export.rbird’ button to download the ‘Overall Certainty’ map used in this example. The knowledge map can then be imported into your Rainbird Studio.

Query and Results

The relationships ‘pick a fruit’, ‘has probability to pick (colour) fruit’, and ‘has probability to pick fruit’, are the three relationships which should be queried when using the model: 

  • The outcome of running the query on the relationship ‘pick a fruit’, will show the confidence factor of picking the right fruit , dependent on the confidence level the end-user sets.
  • The outcome of running the query on the relationship ‘has probability to pick green knowing fruit’ (or yellow) will show the probability to pick the right fruit.
  • To run the combined rules for both green and yellow fruits query the relationship “has probability to pick fruit”.

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Version 1.02 – Last Update: 26/03/2021